Algorithm to prevent crimes in real life

Posted by Unknown Wednesday, July 4, 2012

The phrase "crime prevention" may seem removed from the speech of any political campaign, but the truth is that it is very difficult to perform. Not all crimes are equal, despite efforts, there's a crime that initially go unnoticed. However, technology has become one of the most important allies of the authorities in recent years. Some time ago we talked about the IBM System Blue Crush, but now, an algorithm developed by the company PredPol demonstrated excellent capacity in anticipating which areas are most likely to record a crime.

"The best way to prevent crime is ...". Honestly, how many times have we heard that? The word "crime" is used as a kind of wild, when the reality shows that can be as complex and varied as human nature itself. There is no exact formula for preventing crime, and personally, I think it never will be. It's a constant battle, not only against criminals. Lack of resources is a recurring problem in many police forces, to name just one. Technology can help in different ways, although it is still resisted by elements who believe that "traditional methods" are more reliable.

One element that may tip the balance in favor of "prevention technology" is an algorithm developed by the people of PredPol. The software works together from previous reports, studies of criminal behavior and anthropological research. The District Police Department's Foothill of Los Angeles began to follow the patterns indicated by the algorithm, and a decrease of 25 percent in property crimes. The main advantage is that the algorithm can process full years of reports and indications, thus presenting more accurate predictions. With reference to random locations, the algorithm was six times more accurate anticipation of crimes against three times human analysts. Still, company officials clarified that the objective is not "replace" the police effort, but place it in the right place and right time.



The application of this algorithm has so far yielded solid results, but as expected, certain questions arise. On the one hand, if a policeman stops a vehicle or type in a place simply because a computer program has indicated that "could" be a crime there, some would invoke the Fourth Amendment to protect, leading to a more complicated legal situation . On the other hand, take into consideration that the crime is rarely static. If prevention in an area becomes too strong, the criminals simply move elsewhere. The big question is whether the algorithm, or a similar development can anticipate where would these criminals. The algorithm will use expanded in the coming months, and perhaps even departing from Los Angeles to be applied in other cities.

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